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Saturday, July 9, 2016

Uro 2016 final preview: Portugal v France : FRANCE WINNING CHANCE 79%





Euro 2016 final preview: Portugal v France
Will Cristiano Ronaldo help Portugal
win their first major tournament or will Paul Pogba, Dimitri Payet, Antoine
Griezmann & Olivier Giroud do it for the hosts?

Portugal v France, Sunday 8pm, Paris 1230 am India

France’s
2-0 victory over Germany was
among the best matches of the tournament & the hosts will now face Portugal
on Sunday at the Stade de France, with Dider Deschamps’ side strong favourites.
After all, Fernando Santos’ men only secured their first victory in 90 minutes
at the tournament in the semi-finals against a Wales team that was hampered by
suspensions & that seemed to have run out of steam & ideas in the
absence of Aaron Ramsey in particular.
The final
is unlikely to rival the game between France & Germany for quality but it
should be an intriguing affair nonetheless. Portugal have made it this far due
to an impressive defensive resilience that ensures their matches never get away
from them, but they are underdogs. They have lost their last 10 matches against
France, including both meetings in the five-team qualifying group from which Portugal emerged.




If Portugal are looking for
redemption it’s not over France but their desire to put right the
wrongs of their own past, most specifically the final of Euro 2004. As the host
nation of the tournament 12 years ago, they were expected to beat Greece in the
final & win their first major competition. Greece had won just two of their
five matches in 90 minutes en route to the final & Phil Scolari’s team were
tipped for glory. Cristiano Ronaldo was the emerging star at the time – with Renato
Sanches having taken that role at this tournament – with Luís Figo, Rui Costa
& Deco the established stars who were expected to have too much for Greece.
But Portugal fell to a shock defeat, just as they had done in the opening game
of the tournament.
The roles
are reversed this time around, with Paul Pogba, Dimitri Payet & Antoine
Griezmann making hosts France the team packed with talent, but Portugal will be
confident that they can frustrate France in the way Greece frustrated them.
Despite
being forced to extra-time against both Croatia & Poland, Portugal have
faced just eight shots in the knockout stages in 330 minutes of action – & they
have conceded just once. That said, France have hit their stride since
Griezmann was moved into a central position in the second half of their last-16
comeback win over Ireland. He has made France look like a completely different
team going forwards. The Atlético Madrid forward took his tally for the
tournament to six in the semi-final – becoming only the second ever player
after Michel Platini (nine) to score more than five goals in a European Championship – & playing closer to Olivier
Giroud has tapped into one of the Arsenal striker’s undoubted strengths.


Giroud
holds up play & brings others into the action with intricate flicks & touches
in the final third, which makes him ideal for Griezmann. The Arsenal striker
was our player of the round in the quarter-final with a perfect 10 rating
against Iceland, while Griezmann picked up the award with a score of 9.76
against Germany in the semi-finals. Tellingly, France have fired off 25 shots
on target in the knockout stages compared to just 11 across their three group
stage matches facing weak opposition.
Griezmann
had just two shots on target from a wide berth in the group stages compared to
10 in a more central position in the knockouts, so Portugal will have to work
hard to keep him quiet. The returning William Carvalho will be one of those
tasked with limiting his influence, & Santos may even consider a change of
formation to restrict the space between the lines, utilising Danilo Pereira as
a second ball winner. A midfield match-up of Paul Pogba & Renato Sanches –
who possesses many of the qualities that have ensured the Juventus midfielder’s
success, most notably his physical strength in possession & ability to
drive forward with the ball – is a mouthwatering prospect.


Portugal cannot afford to sit deep
& defend all game, & will need Cristiano Ronaldo to be in the
limelight, where he usually is & always likes to be. HE had the chance to
break Michel Platini’s European Championship goals record, having equalled the
Frenchman’s tally of nine with a goal against Wales on Wednesday – albeit over
four tournaments to Platini’s one – & he will be determined to get his name
in the history books regardless of the result.
Despite a
decent showing against Wales, Ronaldo has been far from his best & rarely
reaches that level for the national side. If he could inspire a shock victory
to help Portugal to their first ever major trophy, that much would be forgotten
in an instant.
Ultimately
this game may need a moment of real brilliance to spark into life or settle the
outcome altogether. France have more players capable of creating such moments
but Portugal are experts in ensuring that they always have a chance, be that of
nicking the game or forcing extra time, no matter the opponent. Here’s hoping
an early goal can transform this match into the spectacle the tournament
deserves.

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